A Comprehensive Look At Michigan’s Path To The Playoffs

In the College Football Playoff committee’s first top-25 rankings reveal of the year, Michigan slotted in at No. 21, the same spot it occupies in the AP Poll.

The CFP is in its second year with a 12-team format, but it’s not necessarily the top-12 teams that make the field. The top-5 ranked conference champions get an automatic bid, then the rest of the field will be filled out based on the rankings themselves. 

One or two of the conference champions will generally fall outside of the top-12 ranked teams, thus, to receive an at-large bid, the cutoff is around the No. 10 or No. 11 spot.

Here’s what Michigan’s path to the College Football Playoffs looks like…

There is still a small chance that the Wolverines can make it to the Big Ten Championship Game, but it would necessitate a lot of chaos going down at the top of the conference alongside the Wolverines winning all three of their remaining games. In that case, Michigan most likely wouldn’t need the conference championship game to punch its ticket.

So, the biggest thing for the Wolverines is to simply win out. Easy, right?

Of course not, but it’s not out of the question, either. Michigan’s next two games are against beatable opponents. The first of which is a game against Northwestern set to take place at Wrigley Field in Chicago on Nov. 15.

The Wildcats are a much-improved team from just last year. In 2024, they went 2-7 in the Big Ten, and a struggling Michigan squad had no problem with them, winning 50-6 in Ann Arbor. This season, however, they are a respectable 3-2 in the conference and 5-3 overall.

Still, the Wolverines should be able to escape The Friendly Confines with their eighth win and subsequently turn their attention to Maryland.

The Terrapins are better than their 1-4 record in the Big Ten suggests. Three of their four conference losses are by four points or less, playing both Washington and Nebraska very close. Regardless, the Wolverines are the better team on paper, and will be favored to win.

A lot still has to go right, but there is a very real chance that Michigan enters its final game sitting at 9-2 and facing a win-and-in situation. Of course, the win has to come over currently-No. 1 Ohio State.

The Wolverines have owned the rivalry as of late, winning the previous four matchups, but this game is always unpredictable. Take 2024’s game for example: The Buckeyes — the eventual national champions — lost 13-10 to a Michigan squad which had one of the worst offenses in the Big Ten.

Anything can happen in The Game, but the Wolverines will need to make it five straight if they want to make the playoffs.

The biggest thing Michigan needs to do is get healthy, but that’s out of anyone’s control. The Wolverines are hopeful that the bye week will give their guys some time to recover, but only time will tell.

In its last two games, Michigan’s passing attack has taken a step back. Ups and downs are expected when you trot out a freshman quarterback, but Bryce Underwood and his receivers are going to need to put together their best stretch of the season to give the Wolverines a shot.

When in a scenario like this, it’s easy to get lost in the big picture — Michigan has big goals and aspirations, but it can’t lose sight of what’s in front of it now. The Wolverines can’t afford a loss, and that includes Northwestern and Maryland, too. Ohio State is certainly the biggest, and potentially most important, game left on the schedule, but to make the game mean something in regards to making the playoffs, Michigan has to take things one week at a time.

This also means seemingly small things like special teams mistakes must be eradicated, because especially at this point in the season, one small error can be the difference between a win and a loss.

The Wolverines have everything in front of them still, but they have to do a lot of things right in order for them to get where they want to go.