5 Things To Watch For When Michigan Takes On Arizona In The Final Four

The metrics, the metrics, the metrics. In the ongoing search for sense in an often-senseless sport, college basketball has spawned a slew of formulas that aim to remove the subjectivity of ranking teams.

Hate metrics or love them, they are solid predictors of success, all things considered. And for most of the year, Arizona and Michigan were battling for the top spot according to those formulas.

Now, the two squads meet — as the numbers predicted they would — in the final weekend of the season.

Neither team harbors many weaknesses, and both of them are playing solid, consistent basketball. Thus, Saturday night’s matchup is shaping up to be a slugfest in Indianapolis, with the winner almost assuredly entering as the favorite to win it all on Monday.

Here are five things to keep an eye on when the Wolverines take on the Wildcats in the Final Four…

It’s a little bit of an exaggeration, but in comparison to the rest of the country, the Wildcats practically ignore the common 3-point heavy offensive ideology.

Just 26.4% of Arizona’s shot attempts come from beyond the arc, which is well below the 39.5% national average. Instead, it works the ball to the interior, grabs fistfuls of offensive rebounds, and gets to the free-throw line.

It’s a unique offense, and it’s unlike anything the Wolverines have seen so far this season. Gonzaga and Tennessee both sit well below the national average in 3-point shot attempts, but neither squad did so at the same rate nor efficiency as Arizona.

Despite not shooting many triples, the Wildcats still boast the 4th-most efficient offense in the country according to KenPom. It’s unique and effective — that’s a tough combination to stop.

Moving back to the metrics once more, Michigan and Arizona own the two most efficient defenses in the country according to KenPom. 

All year, both of these squads have been able to rely on its defense to keep them in games when the offense was struggling. But with two outstanding defenses alongside two elite offenses, there is nowhere to hide. 

The game might not showcase any offensive fireworks, but the defensive prowess on both sides should provide a tight game.

Of Arizona’s top contributors, two are freshmen and one is a senior. Freshman guard Brayden Burries and freshman forward Koa Peat lead the team in scoring with 16.1 and 14.1 points per game, respectively.

Burries is one of the only Wildcats that consistently shoots from three, and he’s quite good at it. He’s shooting over 40% on 4.4 attempts per game. Peat, on the other hand, scores almost exclusively from inside the arc, both on sizeups and back-to-the-basket looks.

Senior guard Jaden Bradley is the glue of the team, averaging 13.3 points, 4.4 assists, and 3.5 rebounds. He might not have the most eye-popping stats on paper, but he picked up Big 12 Player of the Year honors because he impacts winning beyond the statsheet.

The best way to beat Arizona’s defense is to spread it out. If the Wildcats are allowed to pack in and defend the paint, they are incredibly hard to score on. But if the Wolverines can get to the middle of the floor and work inside out, they might be able to find success.

Part of doing that is being able to knock down 3-pointers. Michigan has been shooting the ball well this tournament, and it’s going to need to keep that production high. Using junior center Aday Mara’s passing ability in the post to create looks on the perimeter can be a useful weapon as well.

Forcing Arizona to extend opens up the kind of actions that Michigan likes to run — cuts and high-low actions, for example— and it could be an effective tool to crack the staunch Wildcats defense. 

At this point in the season, teams are seeking near-perfection, and Michigan cannot afford to have lapses in performing the little things.

The Wolverines can’t have a night where they turn the ball over 15-plus times, shoot poorly from the free-throw line, or get into early foul trouble. They’re talented enough to win it all, certainly, but a big factor as to whether they get it done or not lies in the minutia.

It’s the Final Four, after all, and both teams are expected to bring their best game to Lucas Oil Stadium. And if they do, it should be one of the most exciting games of the season on the biggest stage.